Customer Advisory: May 2025 Freight Market Update

The month of May marks a new turn in the trade war, with announcements of a 90-day reduction in tariffs between the U.S. and China. In addition to other factors becoming clearer—such as a more conservative China Vessel Fee set to take effect in October—the Trump administration seems to be signaling a more open stance on trade. We expect a significant cargo swing, as markets largely don’t trust this openness to be stable. Space is likely to become tight as companies rush to import as much as possible before a potential shift in policy.

Yusen Logistics teams are closely monitoring the situation and working with our transportation partners to meet customers' needs. Please provide your shipping forecasts to your local Yusen representative and consider booking 4 to 6 weeks in advance.

Below is an overview of the current market situation across major trade lanes. For inquiries, please contact your Yusen representative or email us at  solutions@us.yusen-logistics.com  and a member of our team will contact you promptly.
 

GENERAL OVERVIEW

• Capacity crunch beckons on eastbound trans-Pacific after US-China deal Read More>>
• West India container trade facing delays, vessel skips after regional tensions Read More>>
• USTR Releases Details on China Vessel Fee Implementation Read More >>
• Global schedule reliability records two consecutive M/M increases. Read More>>
• VLSFO 20 ports average index at $531 USD per mt at the time of writing. Read More>>

TRANSPACIFIC EAST BOUND (TPEB)

• Large number of blankings implemented by carriers during the period of high China Tariffs
• A 90-day “pause” on the trade war with China is expected to cause a large influx of shipments, combined with previously ordered goods that were put on hold and are currently sitting in Chinese Customs and Forwarding Services (CFS) facilities, resulting in a sudden space crunch.
• South East Asia shipments up 10-15% in the previous month, replacing some of the lost volume from China. The expectation is that South East Asia will continue to grow, but will also see some decline back to pre-tariff levels.
• Congestion at US ports cleared up over the last month, but a new cargo surge threatens to push the ports back into turmoil.
   

TRANSPACIFIC WEST BOUND (TPWB)

• Congestion at U.S. West Coast ports because of importers front-loading cargo ahead of tariff implementation is expected to reduce as import volumes slow down and carriers implement blank sailings as a result.
• Congestion remains at transshipment ports, however, as an increase in services from carrier alliance changes, coupled with poor weather, continues to have an impact.
• As a result of the lowered demand for TPEB, several carriers have either suspended services or implemented changes to better align capacity, which will impact TPWB coverage:
   
  • MSC has suspended its “Mustang” service. To maintain connectivity between Asia and the West Coast of North America, MSC will revise its “Orient” service to include Busan and Portland port calls, while the “Chinook” service will add a port call in Ningbo.
  • MSC will also merge its Southeast Asia – Far East – California “Pearl” service with the Far East – India Subcontinent “Shikra” service. The new service, named “Pearl-Shikra”, will now be a longer, singular pendulum service covering the aforementioned areas.
  • TS Lines has ended its “AWC2” service connecting Xiamen, Nansha, Shekou (Chiwan), and Yantian to Los Angeles.
    Zim cancelled their ZIM Central China Xpress service (“ZX2”) connecting Shanghai, Ningbo to Los Angeles.
  • Premier Alliance “PS5” and “PN4” services, scheduled to commence in May 2025, will both be suspended until further notice.
     

TRANSATLANTIC EAST BOUND (TAEB)

• Congestion remains at Mediterranean ports of Piraeus, Genoa, and Valencia due to adverse weather and cargo diversions.
• Congestion has also been an ongoing issue at Hamburg, Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Le Havre. This congestion has slowed throughput, leading to equipment shortages in Central Europe.
• The change in carrier alliances has seen a reduction in available space at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports; however, the revised capacity should still outpace expected demand.
   

LATIN AMERICA SOUTH BOUND (LATAM)

• Lazaro Cardenas and Manzanillo ports in Mexico have been seeing berthing delays as port infrastructure is insufficient for the larger tonnage vessels that have begun calling these ports.
• As the delays from southern Brazil persist, schedule reliability has been further negatively impacted as congestion bleeds into transship hubs at Kingston, Cartagena, Caucedo, and Panama ports. 

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